What I want from Monday's election.
Apr. 30th, 2011 08:14 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
theweaselkingHonestly, the best possible result at this point is a CPC(non communist) minority opposed by an NDP/Lib coalition, NDP/Lib/BQ at worst.
And, really, I'm actually hoping for the NDP to pass the Liberals in second place, giving us Prime Minister Jack Layton. Yes, yes, I've already made the Pravda endorses Trotsky joke, although me and the NDP is more "Macleans endorses Ignatieff". (Which they did.)
I'm still voting Liberal for one critically important reason that I'll get to in a moment, but, hell, while an NDP majority would be disastrous, that simply isn't going to happen - and an NDP MINORITY means their worst excesses get checked by the Bloc and the Libs, their sensible policies are in line with the Bloc and the Libs and in a couple of technologically-related cases are both better AND close enough for the Bloc and Libs to let past... and the CPC(non-communist) get to sit the fuck out and let their American-style religious insanity not fuck anything up further for a while.
For bonus points, losing the Government means Harper loses the party, and his base are already angry at how left-wing and wimpy and Obama-like he is. They want a real classic Ron Paul/David Duke replacement, and will insist both on that AND a lifting of Harper's muzzle so they stop having to hide the True Blue attitude.
Losing *to the NDP* means Ignatieff is out on his ass and hopefully he finds a nice cozy place far the fuck away from Canada to cool his heels and cheerlead for torturers, like he was doing BEFORE his current election fever. That sadly leaves Rae as heir apparent, which may mean the Libs need to tank another election or two before someone turfs HIM and puts someone in who isn't a complete economic illiterate whose sole official track record involves directly and personally destroying the economy of the largest Province.
But I'm still voting Liberal, because in Canada, even now, there are exactly two and only two parties. WHICH two parties they are varies by voter, but there are still only two: The party who takes the riding, and the party who WOULD have taken the riding if people who don't understand how vote counting works were smarter. And where I live, that means choosing between the Liberal and the CPC(non-communist) candidates[1], which means I and all non-stupid people who live here SHOULD vote Liberal.[2]
Determining who to vote for in Canada is really simple: If the top two involves the CPC(non-communist), you vote for the other candidate NO MATTER WHAT. If they're not in the top two, then you vote against the BQ next, then the NDP[4], then the Liberals[4] - and if someone is neither CPC nor BQ or NDP or Liberal and is in the top two? Fuck YES you vote for that person unless they're completely Teabagger.
At no time do you EVER vote third-party. That's fucking stupid. That's the same as "not voting" with a side order of DERP A HURR DERP. As an added bonus, due to having never been in power ever the NDP are big supporters of fixing the system so that "only ever vote for the least stupid of the top two" is no longer the only workable option.
[1]: For bonus points: The NDP candidate for my riding is a no-show. No-showed the debates, no-showed the community meetings, her rep told the press that she's not going to be doing any of that. And she's still polling at 16%, for some stupid reason. Not that her 16%, or even the Green's 6%, would make the Lib win here.
[2]: Given my druthers, I would vote for the Green party candidate in my riding. Not because I like the Greens, but because I know him personally. I used to work with him, and he's a very smart guy and would make a great MP if he was running for a party that mattered in a riding where a vote for him wasn't a vote for Brigadier General Fuckwit McHateFuture[3]. As a bonus, he's the kind of guy who is both willing AND able to tell the Green Party to fuck off when they're saying something stupid, and as their only MP they wouldn't be able to do a damn thing about him. But he can't win.
[3]: The CPC(non-communist) candidate.[5]
[4]: Consideration on this ordering, for the current election, is debatable. Since the NDP having more seats than the Liberals produces one of the very best possible side effects ever seen in Canadian politics, and voting NDP in an NDP/Lib riding doesn't give a seat to the CPC(non-communist), voters in such ridings should consider their candidates carefully and potentially violate this rule of elections, this time.
[5]: Who is going to win, because my neighbours are idiots. I have trained my dog to pee only on the blue signs, though[6]. It makes me feel better.
[6]: No, really. I actually have done this. Every time I leave my house with her, we cross the street and she pees on the Re-Elect McHateFuture sign. And I praise her and give her cookies.
And, really, I'm actually hoping for the NDP to pass the Liberals in second place, giving us Prime Minister Jack Layton. Yes, yes, I've already made the Pravda endorses Trotsky joke, although me and the NDP is more "Macleans endorses Ignatieff". (Which they did.)
I'm still voting Liberal for one critically important reason that I'll get to in a moment, but, hell, while an NDP majority would be disastrous, that simply isn't going to happen - and an NDP MINORITY means their worst excesses get checked by the Bloc and the Libs, their sensible policies are in line with the Bloc and the Libs and in a couple of technologically-related cases are both better AND close enough for the Bloc and Libs to let past... and the CPC(non-communist) get to sit the fuck out and let their American-style religious insanity not fuck anything up further for a while.
For bonus points, losing the Government means Harper loses the party, and his base are already angry at how left-wing and wimpy and Obama-like he is. They want a real classic Ron Paul/David Duke replacement, and will insist both on that AND a lifting of Harper's muzzle so they stop having to hide the True Blue attitude.
Losing *to the NDP* means Ignatieff is out on his ass and hopefully he finds a nice cozy place far the fuck away from Canada to cool his heels and cheerlead for torturers, like he was doing BEFORE his current election fever. That sadly leaves Rae as heir apparent, which may mean the Libs need to tank another election or two before someone turfs HIM and puts someone in who isn't a complete economic illiterate whose sole official track record involves directly and personally destroying the economy of the largest Province.
But I'm still voting Liberal, because in Canada, even now, there are exactly two and only two parties. WHICH two parties they are varies by voter, but there are still only two: The party who takes the riding, and the party who WOULD have taken the riding if people who don't understand how vote counting works were smarter. And where I live, that means choosing between the Liberal and the CPC(non-communist) candidates[1], which means I and all non-stupid people who live here SHOULD vote Liberal.[2]
Determining who to vote for in Canada is really simple: If the top two involves the CPC(non-communist), you vote for the other candidate NO MATTER WHAT. If they're not in the top two, then you vote against the BQ next, then the NDP[4], then the Liberals[4] - and if someone is neither CPC nor BQ or NDP or Liberal and is in the top two? Fuck YES you vote for that person unless they're completely Teabagger.
At no time do you EVER vote third-party. That's fucking stupid. That's the same as "not voting" with a side order of DERP A HURR DERP. As an added bonus, due to having never been in power ever the NDP are big supporters of fixing the system so that "only ever vote for the least stupid of the top two" is no longer the only workable option.
[1]: For bonus points: The NDP candidate for my riding is a no-show. No-showed the debates, no-showed the community meetings, her rep told the press that she's not going to be doing any of that. And she's still polling at 16%, for some stupid reason. Not that her 16%, or even the Green's 6%, would make the Lib win here.
[2]: Given my druthers, I would vote for the Green party candidate in my riding. Not because I like the Greens, but because I know him personally. I used to work with him, and he's a very smart guy and would make a great MP if he was running for a party that mattered in a riding where a vote for him wasn't a vote for Brigadier General Fuckwit McHateFuture[3]. As a bonus, he's the kind of guy who is both willing AND able to tell the Green Party to fuck off when they're saying something stupid, and as their only MP they wouldn't be able to do a damn thing about him. But he can't win.
[3]: The CPC(non-communist) candidate.[5]
[4]: Consideration on this ordering, for the current election, is debatable. Since the NDP having more seats than the Liberals produces one of the very best possible side effects ever seen in Canadian politics, and voting NDP in an NDP/Lib riding doesn't give a seat to the CPC(non-communist), voters in such ridings should consider their candidates carefully and potentially violate this rule of elections, this time.
[5]: Who is going to win, because my neighbours are idiots. I have trained my dog to pee only on the blue signs, though[6]. It makes me feel better.
[6]: No, really. I actually have done this. Every time I leave my house with her, we cross the street and she pees on the Re-Elect McHateFuture sign. And I praise her and give her cookies.
(no subject)
Date: 2011-05-01 04:05 am (UTC)1) the outgoing MP (or whatever you guys call them) isn't running for reelection and only held the seat on personal vote, despite local collapse in party organisation and support on a massive scale
2) the result is a foregone conclusion because it's a safe safe seat for someone.
TBH, in your situation, I'd vote for the candidate I most liked, as the arsehole's going to win and it'll make no difference, but your logiv for the other vote is sound.
Last year, our sitting MP stood down, and if she'd run again she'd have had my vote (Labour MP who voted against the war, against the torture, for investigations and against all the ID cards and useless IT policies, plus drinks in a few local biker bars). Her party selected Tony Blair's step-mother-in-law (seriously, no joke), who ran on a "Tony did nothing wrong and the war was a Good Thing" platform, as well as being completely useless and alienating half her activist base, some of whom switched to us.
In the meantime, we'd wiped them out in local Govt and supplanted them. On the day, we tied with the Tories in the local votes, but tactical voting kicked in horribly and we tied with Labour in distant joint 2nd for the national votes, a chunk of our support hated the Labour candidate so much they voted Tory tactically to keep her out.
We don't have district by district polling that's trusted here, so I couldn't prove we could win to anyone, not even my own party.
If there's a chance your preferred party could leapfrog, take it. I was actually fairly sure the Tory would win regardless, I was right, so both my caveats applied at once.
But yeah, crapy voting system is crappy.
(no subject)
Date: 2011-05-01 01:33 pm (UTC)My preferred candidate: Yeah, no, I don't vote for fake parties. And I don't DISLIKE the Lib candidate - she's reasonably sensible, answered my questions, and when she didn't know what I was talking about, said so, asked where she could learn more... and then called me back showing evidence of having read it.
My point is, if the NDP had leapfrogged the Liberals in my riding, I would have voted for them and not even felt too bad about it this time - but I'm never voting for a no-show candidate. So the Liberals as still in the lead, and I hate the incumbent and plan to teach my dog to piss on his grave instead of his re-election signs when the time comes, so they get my vote.
(no subject)
Date: 2011-05-01 06:12 pm (UTC)Our polling companies say it's "almost impossible" to do it on a per seat basis, even for by elections, and those that have tried get terrible results.
Given in some cases it's the same companies as you have, I smell a rat, I suspect it's more lack of local enough media to pay for it.
(no subject)
Date: 2011-05-02 02:17 am (UTC)The Dion coalition formed because Harper tried to kill this subsidy, and killing this subsidy is in his platform for this election. However, Harper has no intention whatsoever of killing the other subsidy for parties, the tax deductible campaign contribution one. This reflects where the Con money comes from versus all the other parties.
(no subject)
Date: 2011-05-02 02:28 am (UTC)Why not just vote for someone who might win, and *donate* that, or twice that, or ten times that, directly to the party?
(Yes, because not everyone will do that and if they get less than 4% they don't get the money from the people who don't donate the way you will. But still!)