(no subject)

[theweaselking]

Oh look, we're fucked.

Gee, vote splitting, splits votes! CPC(non-communist) has taken a pile of seats because NDP and Lib supporters are bad at math.

Good news, looks like the Bloc are completely fucking dead, and both Ignatieff and Duceppe have lost their seats, which means Ignatieff is gone. Sadly, Rae looks like he *might* keep his seat.

Comments

[moiread]

I voted Liberal even though I wanted to vote NPD specifically because I wasn't willing to split the vote.

Last time, in my riding, Baird (C) only won by about 2.5k votes, and I did my best to tell this to everyone I knew and beg them to vote Liberal because that was our best chance of kicking Baird, who is both Conservative and a giant flaming fuckhead, out. Most of them either didn't vote or voted for a different left-wing party. Even my parents both decided to vote Green because they wanted to "give more money to a poor party". I begged them to vote Liberal so as not to split the vote, but they did it anyway.

I am so mad. I am trying hard to respect everyone's right to vote with their conscience and all that, but seriously, this was the result. And yes, I know FPTP is fucking broken, but you either work with that you've got and push for change or you wind up with shit like this.

[theweaselking.livejournal.com]

Even my parents both decided to vote Green because they wanted to "give more money to a poor party". I begged them to vote Liberal so as not to split the vote, but they did it anyway.

Holy fucking shit "MAIL THEM A $20 AND VOTE FOR SOMEONE WHO MIGHT WIN!"

[theweaselking.livejournal.com]

PS: I used to work with a bunch of Greens, including the current Green Party Candidate in my riding. When told that each vote gave money to the party, I tossed $5 at them and said "OH LOOK I JUST VOTED FOR YOU TWICE". They were only partly amused.

[james-nicoll.livejournal.com]

In Kitchner center it's played out like this:

Party                    %   
                    2006    2008   2011

Conservative 	    32.13  36.69   42.1
Liberal 	    43.26  35.94   30.6
New Democrat 	    18.43  18.08   22.5

I don't think the local NDP got all that many extra votes; it's just the Liberals are dead meat and even a once relatively popular MP like Redman couldn't survive that.

[ronebofh.livejournal.com]

Voters were told there would be no math.

Anyway, if you're complaining that the voters failed to game the system, the problem isn't the voters.

[theweaselking.livejournal.com]

The problem is that 40% of the votes takes 100% of the power.

The system cannot NOT be gamed, and yes it is broken because of this.

[moiread]

Yes, thank you. We are aware that the system sucks.

[lederhosen.livejournal.com]

I agree FPTP sucks (chalk me up for AV/preferential/IRV), but note that Arrow's theorem (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow%27s_impossibility_theorem) makes it impossible to eliminate tactical voting altogether (unless you're prepared to break the system in some rather absurd ways).

IME it seems to happen a lot less in AV, but it certainly does happen.

[snakey.livejournal.com]

No, they've taken a pile of seats because FPTP sucks ass.

[snakey.livejournal.com]

Also, opposition to so-called "vote-splitting" was a factor in causing the current Orwellian UK govt, so fuck that noise.

[theweaselking.livejournal.com]

This is a well-known phenomenon. And, in a riding where you KNOW you're the spoiler (because per-riding polls aren't that bad, in Canada), voting for the spoiler party instead of the winning party is a sign that either you didn't know the system sucks (and thus were not paying attention), or knew it sucked and voted that way ANYWAY (which is damn near vandalism.)

[sivi-volk.livejournal.com]

I voted for the third-place party of last election. My candidate won by a landslide.

[theweaselking.livejournal.com]

What riding?

Which is another way of saying "third-place MY ASS"

[anton-p-nym.livejournal.com]

I'm not seeing what you're seeing, though I'll admit I'm not following a lot of different ridings... but of the ones I've tracked, about half have simple majorities for the declared winner.

- In my riding, the NDP incumbant won with 52% of the popular vote
- in my parents' riding the Conservative candidate is winning with 48%
- in your riding Gen. Halftrack is winning with 56%
- Harper's winning his riding with 75%
- Duceppe lost to the NDP candidate's 47%
- Layton won with 61%

Closer races:
- May's winning with only 47% but trending up
- London West looks to go Conservative with 45%
- Ignatieff's losing to the Conservative candidate's 40%
- London North Centre is running a close race with no declared winner

Unless my sample's not representative (and it may not be... so tired...) this isn't a FPTP issue. This is (IMO) an issue of Iggy running as Harper-lite and getting spanked for it, matched by Quebec deciding en masse that they've had enough of the Bloc.

-- Steve's going to gulp down some Tylenol and alergy meds and get some sleep now.

[theweaselking.livejournal.com]

There are enough CPC marginals in split NDP/Lib/Green ridings to turn this into a minority.

[cosmiccat.livejournal.com]

We'll see if Harper can keep ahold of 166 MPs - he constantly bled them as a cautious minority government, if he starts stampeding all over Canada we may see some friction from the less completely nuts members of his caucus. All it takes is 12 MPs with a conscience and - wait. Damn. Politicians. Shit.

Yeah, we're completely fucked. Country over. American liberals hoping to flee here: too late!

Time to build a cabin in the woods and withdraw from civic life.

[torrain.livejournal.com]

This. Well, up until the "wait. Damn."

Tomorrow, after sleep, I expect to start hoping for a party schism. Right now I'm just going to be exhausted and ashamed and angry and tired and...

Tomorrow.

[theweaselking.livejournal.com]

I suspect more that he'll lose his grip on the extremists because now he's gotten them what they want.

But yeah. Kevin and I are planning to spend the next five years drunk. Want to join us?

[iponly.livejournal.com]

American Liberal: You guys still have good healthcare and gay marriage, and a much better record on the whole killing tens of thousands of civilians in the middle east thing. Let me in!

[cuddlycthulhu.livejournal.com]

My sympathies.

[sparkindarkness.livejournal.com]

Oh... Canada.

[jerril]

I woke up this morning, listened to the news, cursed, and my husband suggested we move to Norway.

[dgg.livejournal.com]

I wouldn't go so far to say "we're fucked" but you gotta love the irony. The main people who spear-headed the no-confidence vote and forced Harper to call this election are the very same people who really got hurt in the end. The people who thought they could topple the leader just made the leader stronger. I certainly couldn't predict this, but then again, I still have to fathom Western Canada's political mindset. Which is what it boils down to IMO.

Yeah, the BQ is as good as dead, but look at the colour coded electoral map. The divide between east and west is still there... Harper may have a majority government but I think he's going to have a hard time keeping his own party in line. What's the saying? "Stay in power long enough and people will start viewing you as a tyrant". I have a feeling that is going to happen to Harper in the long run.

I myself voted Liberal. Shit load of good that did since the Liberal MNA in my riding didn't even come close to beating the NDP. Sure, things would have been better if just one of the parties was absent from the ballot but the Brossard-Laprairie riding has a cross section of many peoples from vastly different backgrounds. So who do you take out of the equation? The answer is you can't.

[fridgepunk.livejournal.com]

The NDP were disatrously successful and the liberals mindboggling incompetent, and so the electoral system acquired hidden variables that broke tactical voting – the "correct" way to do tactical voting would have seen people Voting for NDP in old liberal and BQ ridings, which is the exact opposite of what you and traditional tactical voting wisdom suggested people do.

Maths is not the problem; the problem was the liberals sucked the balls off of every farmyard animal in canada to the extent that it made tactical voting actively supportive of a CPC majority.

[divinevirus.livejournal.com]

I spent several hours last night watching the votes coming in on the CBC website, and tracking random ridings.

There were enough split riding that I think I may have actually yelled "NO, YOU FOOLS!" at some point.

I think another factor is just that nothing drives conservatives to vote than word that the NDP is strong.