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You roll two fair 6-sided dice.

One of them is a 6.

What are the odds that the other is also a six?

[Poll #1770498]

(no subject)

Date: 2011-08-18 03:03 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] pappy-legba.livejournal.com
Which one is six?

The one that is not the "other," of course. It's a dice game, why does which die shows six matter? In almost every dice game ever, the two are interchangeable. so by the context in which you've asked the question-- you've eliminated one die and reduced it to a one-die system.

You're expecting the answer for which die is on which face, but asking in a context in which both dice are interchangeable. It's a sloppy method of communication. The fact that some poorly-written textbooks have used it does not excuse it.

(no subject)

Date: 2011-08-18 03:28 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] theweaselking.livejournal.com
It's a dice game, why does which die shows six matter?

Because "one of the dice is a 6" is different than "the first die is a six".

In almost every dice game ever, the two are interchangeable. so by the context in which you've asked the question-- you've eliminated one die and reduced it to a one-die system.

Except I haven't, because you have two dice, and one is a six. You don't know which one.

And that changes the odds.

The question is not ambiguous and it is not a trick wording and it is not unclear.

You just did the math incorrectly.

(no subject)

Date: 2011-08-18 09:03 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] pappy-legba.livejournal.com
Because "one of the dice is a 6" is different than "the first die is a six".

There is no 'first' in the context of rolling dice. Ever. The only place that the dice are not interchangeable are in probability questions that confuse poor wording for educational value. In every context of rolling dice aside from "nitpicky questions that confuse poor communication for cleverness", you never need to know which of the dice is six, you just need to know that a six is one of the two showing faces.

For example, if you even made vaguely that you're concerned about which of the dice is six, then I would immediately say "oh, he's not talking about normal usage of dice," then I and many others would do the math differently. I assumed you were trying to communicate clearly, in which case one can assume the normal convention of rolling dice-- two undifferentiated dice. Inserting the preoccupation with which die shows which face is intellectually dishonest.

(no subject)

Date: 2011-08-19 08:59 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] boxcat.livejournal.com
> The question is not ambiguous and it is not a trick wording and it is not unclear.
>
> You just did the math incorrectly.

Look at the result of your own poll.

What is more likely - that 78.5% (at time of commenting) of your readership understood your wording in the way you intended it, did the conditional probability maths and got it wrong (and all the same way).

Or, that your wording was unclear, and conveyed to your audience that you were indicating which specific (instance of a) die was showing a six (when that's not what you meant) ?

Loads of the stuff you post here is awesome. You buggered this post up, by not being clear when you thought you were. It happens to everyone. Man up, admit it, move on, post more awesome stuff.

(no subject)

Date: 2011-08-20 10:08 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] cavalorn.livejournal.com
How have I managed to ascertain that one die has come up six without knowing which die it is?

(no subject)

Date: 2011-08-20 01:20 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] theweaselking.livejournal.com
Who cares?

No, seriously.

Maybe someone else looked at 'em. Maybe you've got a bell that goes PING when a 6 comes up but only rings once no matter how many 6s there are. Maybe this is a hypothetical situation involving hypothetical dice, like the hypothetical game shows with their goats and cars.

What matters is that two dice were rolled, and one of them (without saying which) is a 6.

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